With Election Day just around the corner, President Trump has taken a substantial lead over Kamala Harris in the betting markets, according to Polymarket. This 13-point edge in real-time predictions shows Trump with a 56% share of bets on the 2024 presidential election outcome. For the Harris campaign, which has been ramping up appearances in key battleground states, this is not the kind of news they hoped to see.
Harris has been all over the media and hitting up swing states, but her message doesn’t seem to be resonating with undecided voters. Even with significant investments in ads and grassroots campaigns, her support hasn’t budged. Despite her efforts to distance herself from some of the more polarizing aspects of the Biden administration, she’s finding it hard to shake that association in voters’ minds.
The race is tight, but Trump’s betting surge shows he’s got the momentum heading into the final stretch. Since Joe Biden exited the race, Harris swiftly took over as the Democratic nominee and initially saw an influx of donations and a boost in the polls. But that early momentum has now stalled, and concerns are bubbling up within her own party. The reality of running as the first nominee in decades who didn’t face a competitive primary is starting to bite. While Harris’s team brushes off the numbers as temporary, there’s no denying the tension.
“There are a lot of us having flashbacks to 2016,” one source from the Harris camp told CNN. The resemblance is unmistakable: a seemingly comfortable Democratic lead slipping away as Trump pulls ahead in key indicators. The path to 270 electoral votes looks narrow for Harris, with battleground states falling within the margin of error and the campaign relying on a mix of Blue Wall states and a few from the Sun Belt. But every route is tight, and nothing is assured.
As Trump’s numbers tick up, Harris has only a few weeks left to change the trajectory of the race. Her campaign insists they’re staying the course, but the clock is ticking, and the electorate is anything but certain. If she can’t turn things around soon, she may be looking at an upset that even her closest advisors are starting to fear. With Trump leading the way in key indicators like Polymarket, Harris has her work cut out to capture the undecided voters who could tip this election one way or the other.
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