Poll to End All Polls Spells Disaster for Biden

The latest Iowa poll from the highly respected Selzer & Company has sent shockwaves through the political landscape, painting a concerning picture for Joe Biden’s prospects in the critical Midwestern battleground states. As the 2024 election cycle heats up, this “gold-standard” survey has ignited a flurry of commentary and analysis, underscoring the potential challenges the President faces in securing victories in key swing regions.

The Iowa Poll: A Harbinger of Things to Come?

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Company, has long been regarded as the gold standard for political polling in the Hawkeye State. This latest iteration of the survey has revealed a startling trend: former President Donald Trump holds a commanding 18-point lead over Biden among likely Iowa voters, garnering 50% support compared to the Biden’s 32%. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also managed to secure 9% of the vote.

Implications for Battleground States

The implications of this Iowa poll extend far beyond the state’s borders. As political analyst Frank Luntz pointed out, Iowa has historically served as a bellwether for the Midwest, often mirroring the voting patterns of neighboring battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan. Luntz noted that in 2020, Trump’s margin of victory in Iowa was nearly identical to his performance in those critical swing states.

Wisconsin and Michigan: Cause for Concern

Meghan McCain, a conservative commentator, went so far as to suggest that Biden’s apparent struggles in Iowa could spell doom for his chances in Wisconsin, a state he narrowly won in 2020. “There is no scenario where Trump wins Iowa by 18 points but loses Wisconsin,” McCain asserted, underscoring the potential ripple effects of the Iowa poll.

Similarly, the Selzer & Company survey could portend trouble for Biden in Michigan, another Midwestern battleground that the President flipped in the last election after Trump had carried it in 2016.


The Selzer & Company Pedigree

The reputation and track record of Selzer & Company lend significant weight to the findings of this latest Iowa poll. As NBC News reporter Sahil Kapur noted, the firm is widely regarded as the “gold-standard” pollster in the state, with a proven history of accurately predicting election outcomes.

In 2020, Selzer & Company’s final pre-election poll in Iowa accurately forecast Trump’s 8-point victory in the state. This level of precision has earned the firm a respected place in the political polling landscape, making the current survey all the more concerning for the Biden campaign.

The Broader Polling Landscape

While the Iowa poll paints a bleak picture for Biden, it is important to note that nationwide surveys have generally reflected a close race between the President and his potential Republican challenger. Polls across the country have, on average, shown a tight match-up between Biden and Trump.

However, as statistician Nate Silver pointed out, the fact that some of Biden’s “worst numbers” are coming from the “best pollsters” like Selzer & Company is a troubling sign for the President’s campaign.

The Debate Ahead

As the 2024 election cycle moves forward, Biden and Trump are poised to face off in their first debate next week. While independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not currently qualify for the debate, his presence in the Iowa poll suggests he may yet meet the criteria, potentially adding another dynamic to the high-stakes showdown.

Shifting Sands in the Midwest

The findings of the Selzer & Company Iowa poll have sent shockwaves through the political landscape, underscoring the potential challenges Biden faces in securing victories in the critical Midwestern battleground states. As the 2024 election cycle unfolds, the shifting sands in this region will undoubtedly be a focal point for both campaigns, with the future of the presidency potentially hanging in the balance.

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