As the 2024 presidential race heats up, fresh polling from AtlasIntel—yep, the most accurate pollster from 2020—is causing quite the buzz. CEO Andrei Roman has dropped a bombshell: President Trump boasts a whopping 70% chance of victory according to their latest figures. In a chat with AtlasIntel’s Head of US Coverage, Pedro Azevedo, Roman pointed to the stats, highlighting that Trump’s edge is holding strong despite the wild political circus surrounding us.
Roman argues that President Trump has built-in advantages that Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent, is going to struggle to chip away at. The latest poll shows Trump leading by about 3 points nationally—an important margin, especially in those swing states where the momentum seems to be swinging back to Trump like a boomerang. Even with the media fawning over Harris and high-profile endorsements from the likes of pop star Taylor Swift, it hasn’t managed to sway public opinion against President Trump.
“I’d give Trump a 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%,” Roman stated flatly. “What can she do to reverse Trump’s national advantage? Honestly, I’m not seeing it.” Despite Harris having media backing and some big-name allies, President Trump continues to hold the lead.
Roman does point out that U.S. politics is like a rollercoaster—fast and unpredictable. Major events, like the recent assassination attempt on Trump or Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign, tend to fade from the public’s mind quicker than a viral TikTok dance. “People forget things fast, and they’re constantly reacting to new events,” Roman explained.
“I would give Trump 70% chance of winning and Kamala 30%. What more could Kamala do or could her campaign do to reverse the advantage that Trump has nationally? And I don’t really see it at this point.”
The CEO of AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster in the 2020 election.… pic.twitter.com/y9C50G0SBg
— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) September 17, 2024
While he insists on Trump’s 70% chance of winning, Roman wisely notes that anything can happen as election day looms. He referenced the infamous “October surprise”—that catchy term for unexpected events that can flip the political landscape upside down just days before an election. “A lot can change quickly, and who knows what will drive the vote when election day rolls around?” Roman acknowledged, emphasizing that even though Trump has the edge now, surprise developments could still shake things up.
Looking ahead, AtlasIntel will unveil swing state polling next week, likely providing an even clearer picture. For now, it seems President Trump is sitting pretty, with projections showing him in a better spot than many other pollsters suggest. As the 2024 election gets closer, all eyes will be glued to whether Harris can stage a comeback or if Trump’s natural advantages will help him clinch victory once again.
On a spicy note, Trump pointed to the second attempt on his life over the weekend as a symptom of our divided political climate, throwing shade at Kamala Harris and Joe Biden for their incendiary rhetoric. Even though the motives of the two gunmen remain murky, Trump believes that comments from Harris and Biden fired up the suspected shooter, Ryan Wesley Routh, leading to his reckless actions on Sunday.
Leave a Comment