In a surprising turn of events, CNN’s political analyst Harry Enten has delivered a segment that may dampen the enthusiasm of Democrats rallying around Kamala Harris’s perceived momentum in the 2024 presidential race. Despite high-profile endorsements from Democratic heavyweights, including former President Barack Obama, Enten suggests that the supposed surge in Harris’s popularity might not be as robust as it appears.
Enten’s Analysis: Nuanced Polling Data
During his appearance on CNN, Enten pointed out the nuances in recent polling data, which could be crucial as the Democratic Party sets the stage for what many believe will be a Harris nomination. “I think there’s all this talk of all this Harris momentum. Maybe there’s a slight bit of momentum, but I would argue it’s actually a little bit smaller than folks think,” Enten explained.
Enten’s analysis revealed that prior to Biden dropping out, Trump was up by two over Harris. However, when looking at the latest polls this week, Enten noted that Trump is now up by one over Harris. This minor shift in polling, according to Enten, indicates that the change in candidates might be more influential than any genuine momentum for Harris against Trump.
Enten further clarified that the “massive change” is actually the change of candidates, as prior to Biden dropping out, he trailed by six points among the same polls where Harris was only trailing by two points. This suggests that the movement is more from Biden to Harris, rather than Harris herself necessarily moving.
Harry Enten of CNN is making a very good point here. pic.twitter.com/VlWtgWy9hj
— Jaco Kleynhans (@JacoKleynhans) July 26, 2024
The Veep’s “Honeymoon” in the Polls
Harris as the first Black female to lead a major party ticket, has seen a “honeymoon” in the polls as she tightened the race against President Trump and coalesced major Democratic Party figures behind her candidacy. So far, no challenger has stepped forward, putting Harris on a glide path to a formal nomination at the party’s convention in Chicago next month.
Obama, who for days left open the possibility that he would support a “blitz primary” that saw uncommitted delegates swayed by multiple candidates, ultimately closed that door, solidifying his support for Harris’s candidacy.
Ongoing Challenges for Harris
While Harris has seen a shift toward her from Biden among Democratic voters, the overall dynamics of the race against Trump may not have shifted as dramatically as some Democrat optimists might have hoped.
National polls since Biden’s exit continue to show that Trump maintains a lead over Harris and even larger leads in some of the most hotly contested battleground states of the 2024 cycle.
The switchover has disrupted Republicans’ line of attack, which for months had been honed to harness the weakness of Biden’s economy and foreign policy chops, as well as growing evidence of his physical and mental decline in office. Harris has scrambled that strategy, as Republicans test messages about her failures as a border czar, a prosecutor as the former attorney general of California, and her penchant for making “weird” or uninformed statements.
As Democrats continue to coalesce around Harris with the party’s endorsement and strategic moves underway, the real test will begin in the coming months. This period will be critical for Harris and the Democrat Party as they finalize their ticket and refine their strategy going forward.
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