We are still a long way from 2028, but politics never sleeps and neither do betting markets. While the media pretends it is too early to talk about the next presidential race, online predictors are already zeroing in on one Republican in a big way. Unsurprisingly, that name is JD Vance.
According to new data from Polymarket, Vance is the overwhelming front runner for the 2028 presidential election. Not just within a crowded GOP field, but in head to head matchups against Democrats. He is currently leading hypothetical races against Gavin Newsom and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by a wide margin. That is not subtle. That is the market screaming something that cable news would rather whisper.
The numbers tell the story. In a crowded field, Vance sits at around 32 percent, while Newsom trails at 18 percent and AOC lags even further behind at 8 percent. This is not close. It is not even competitive at this stage. For a vice president this far out from a potential run, those numbers are enormous.
🚨 JUST IN: JD Vance's 2028 presidential odds are now higher than they've EVER BEEN this far out
He's well on his way to 48!
"The Democrats are already talking about 2028 and it looks like they're going to nominate a California liberal who's presided over rolling blackouts,… pic.twitter.com/96ciytkxR0
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 21, 2025
Vance leaned into this reality during his speech at AmFest, where he directly addressed 2028 without pretending it was taboo. He framed the coming election exactly how most Americans already see it, a choice between America First leadership and California style liberalism. He pointed to Democrats already circling names like Newsom or Kamala Harris, both symbols of a political model defined by rolling blackouts, soft on crime policies, and border chaos.
That contrast is doing real work for him. Vance is not running away from the record of the last several years. He is owning it. While Democrats argue about which coastal progressive gets the nomination, Republicans are rallying around someone who can articulate the case for economic nationalism, cultural sanity, and national strength without sounding like a think tank pamphlet.
It is also worth noting how unusual this moment is. Vance’s 2028 odds are higher now than they have ever been this far out. That kind of early consolidation rarely happens unless there is genuine enthusiasm, not just donor class hype. The base sees him as a natural extension of the President Trump era, but with a younger voice and sharper instincts for the future.
Yes, it is still early. Anything can happen. But betting markets exist for one reason, they aggregate sentiment before the press catches on. Right now, that sentiment is clear. JD Vance is the Republican Democrats do not want to run against, and the numbers are already proving it.
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