Allen Lichtman, the political historian renowned for his “Keys to the White House” model, has made preliminary predictions favoring Kamala Harris over Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. However, a deeper dive into Lichtman’s criteria suggests his conclusions may be biased. Let’s break down the “Keys to the White House” and apply them to a hypothetical match-up between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, revealing a potentially different outcome.
First, let’s take a look at what Allan Lichtman is predicting:
I plan to make my official prediction in August after the Democratic convention.
See my assessment below below on the 13 Keys Tracker on where The Keys stand NOW. Please listen to our LIVE show on 7–25–24, linked in the comments below, where we detail every Key. pic.twitter.com/pJpkpa3SzW— Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) July 26, 2024
The “Keys to the White House” Model
Lichtman’s model consists of 13 true/false statements that predict the outcome of U.S. presidential elections. Each “true” condition favors the reelection of the incumbent party. Here’s an analysis based on recent events and conditions:
1. Party Mandate: The incumbent party gained seats in the House in the last midterm election.
– False. Democrats lost seats in the 2022 midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
– True. Kamala Harris is likely to be the Democratic nominee without significant internal opposition, but this circumstance is unprecedented in that Kamala Harris was not chosen by voters, she was installed by Democrats after Biden bailed.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
– False. Kamala Harris is the Vice President, not the sitting President.
4. Third Party: There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
– True. No major third-party candidates have emerged so far, though a case could be argued for RFK Jr.
5. Short-term Economy: The economy is not in a recession during the election campaign.
– Uncertain/False. Economic conditions can change, but current concerns about inflation and potential recession could make this false. Normally we see recessions come once interest rates begin to come down which could be in September.
6. Long-term Economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
– False. Economic growth has been uneven, impacted by several factors.
7. Policy Change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
– True. The Biden administration has passed significant legislation, including the American Rescue Plan and infrastructure bills.
8. Social Unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
– False. The U.S. has seen significant social unrest related to racial justice and other issues including what is happening in the Middle East and Europe.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
– False. The Biden administration has faced various controversies, although not all have reached the level of major scandals.
10. Foreign/Military Success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
– False. No major foreign policy successes have been widely recognized as transformative, in fact, the is a glaring one that makes this false.
11. Foreign/Military Failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
– False. *cough* Afghanistan *cough*
12. Incumbent Charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
– False. Kamala Harris does not have the level of charisma attributed to figures like Barack Obama.
13. Challenger Charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
– False. Donald Trump is seen as a very charismatic figure.
Breaking Down the Keys
Based on this analysis:
– True Keys: 3 (Contest, Third Party, Policy Change)
– False Keys: 10 (Party Mandate, Incumbency, Short-term Economy, Long-term Economy, Social Unrest, Scandal, Foreign/Military Success, Foreign/Military Failure, Incumbent Charisma, Challenger Charisma)
According to Lichtman’s own model, the incumbent party needs at least six “true” keys to win. With only five true keys, the Democrats, with Kamala Harris as their candidate, are poised to lose the election.
Lichtman’s preliminary predictions seem to lean towards a particular narrative that doesn’t quite align with the more nuanced realities of the current political landscape. By applying Lichtman’s criteria objectively, it becomes evident Trump is on the road to the White House.
We, America, Needs him back!